Thursday, May 31, 2012

Fiction in progress: Annihilation


The question is not whether it is possible to wipe out a considerable part of the world population, but how long it will take before someone will find it worthwhile to even try it.
Apart from the insane points of view of religious and/or ideologic fanatics that have often been depicted in cheap novels and unrealistic B-movies throughout recent history there isn't a sane reason why anyone would want to kill each and every living soul on this planet.

Why? Earth would become a very harsh place to begin with, without all the complex chains of industry that are needed to provide even simple things like our daily bread, but even more importantly (and, suicidal fanatics, pay attention here) there's nobody left to appreciate the hard work that has gone into it. So there is no good reason to try it. But it might occur to someone that - while killing everybody isn't that smart - killing only half or at least a few billion of everyone would be a lot less stupid. Most of the machinations driving the world would still continue to churn on, and a lot of people would remain to appreciate, or at least remember in a very profound way, what happened.

So let's settle on three billion people. What would that bring us? What would be a decent reason to get rid of half your family, your town, your coworkers, etcetera?

Well, money and power of course. How would it feel to blackmail half of the world into oblivion and own the other half after the fact? Ethics aside, it might appeal to a very small fraction of mankind. And alas, a very small fraction is enough, being with 6 (almost 7) billion people in total. What would knowing that you will survive the next couple of years be worth to you? What price would you put on being certain that you and your loved ones would survive an approaching global disaster? Anything you have? Good. Now multiply that by three billion an you know what's at stake. The question how to collect all that wealth is something else entirely, but we will come to that.

So let's get working. The easiest way to kill a lot of people would be to throw something unhealthy into the air or into the water. All people need water and air all the time. It is not that hard to poison or pollute some small bodies of water unnoticed and history teaches us that many have once succeeded in doing so. We could choose to poison the world puddle by puddle, but this might be detected before we ever really get the hang of it. Timing is very important, because we don't want to spill the beans too early.

On a global scale however, this would mean an unpractical and expensive logistic nightmare. Expensive because of the necessary involvement of a lot of co-conspirators and the massive quantities of poison one would need to make or purchase and deliver. Unpractical because even one mistimed word of one of your partners in crime might put an untimely end to your dark plans.

Back to the drawing board. First problem: the enormous amount of unhealthy stuff we need to effectively kill 3 billion people. Three billion is a lot. To even feed each of them one teaspoon of whatever you fancy to do the trick, you would need 15.000 tonnes of it. Though this conveniently equals the cargo capacity of a Typhoon class Russian submarine, and thus also provide us with a stealthy delivery mechanism, it  might be hard to maneuver such a monster through small rivers to reach even the remotest of people. If you had access to the distribution of drinking water, you would even need a lot more, because only a tiny fraction of that water actually is being drunk.

Luckily, there are poisons of which you'd only need a few nanograms per capita. This would lessen the transportation burden considerably, but we would still need the same distribution network to get it where you want it at the time you need it. That is, is we take it as a given that the chemical has to be produced in advance. But even this is not quite necessary.

We can make our own little portable production facilities instead. And even better, they can reproduce, so we wouldn't need a lot of it to begin with. The most toxic chemical in the world, botulin (also know for its application in cosmetic surgery under the alias Botox), is manufactured by a nice little bacterium. So people would not only die from it, they would also look good afterward. The only real problem is, we don't need it right away, but all at a certain moment in time. Can we pull that off? Yes we can. It is possible to let the gene that takes care of the botulin production express itself after a certain amount of generations. This can be programmed uncannily well if you know how to do it.

At this moment science hasn't progressed enough to postpone expression for more than two generations without bringing external stimuli to the game. You are undoubtedly familiar with the common wisdom that some treats skip one generation. This effect should be stretched to skip a lot more generations (and bacterial generations are short, mind you!). But a little more tinkering might very well enable us to time the manifestion of this property years into the future. The nice thing about it is that the bacteria can take their time to spread themselves all over the world without anybody knowing until it's much too late. And they aren't that hard to feed and keep alive.

Fiction in progress: Alt.History


[Please read NDE first]

We are familiar with temporal inertia, which is basically the same as the familiar inertia associated with mass in space. Since mass equals energy equals information, and space and time have become roughly one thing since Einstein came around, we know that we a)  can travel through time, provided that b) we don't mess things up too far. Good.

Now on with the storyline. Something went horribly wrong. And when I say wrong, I mean a serious major mother-of-all-fuck-ups in which almost all humankind dies horribly and slowly and/or the world becomes a very nasty place to live. Things have to be put right, but in the past rather than in the present. Luckily one time machine (see NDE) did survive, but there's only energy left for two interventions.

We also learn that, while similar, the timeline of this world isn't exactly the same as the one we live in. The slowly revealed big difference  being that christianity, judaism (and islam) never caught on. Never in fact even happened.

But they will happen this time, because wise men in our alternate timeline decide that an economic cause is to be blamed for the current situation. That economic cause must be cured radically.

After studying history, our wise men decide that only two insertions need to be carried out. The first one will insert Moses into Egypt. He will lead the jews out of Egypt and start a religion, for it is calculated that this will restore the world economy. Regrettably a very rigid legal system must be enforced to ensure success. This sounds like a nice solution, but back in the future, it soon becomes clear that around the year 0 (CE) the romans will undo the effect of the insertion, while the same time the jews will happily undo their religion by interpreting the aforementioned legal system even more rigidly.

Calculations prove that this is counterproductive to the plan. So a new plan is drawn, this time involving Jesus being inserted into Israel. He saves the day loosening the rules, with christianity as a side effect, and leaves the place using some nifty 2300 century techniques, baffling the locals.

The second insertion got us back on the right path, but temporal inertia has been violated on a major scale. To prevent a cosmic breakdown of spacetime (and to enable one more essential insertion) our wise men first need to clean up the mess they created, so they plant a third guy, Adolf. He is tasked with getting rid of all the jews in an organized manner, so they can harvest the information. But that doesn't work out as planned (as we are well aware). He did however collect a lot of information, so a final insertion can be made, which will bring X. to the start of the twentyfirst century to do Y. Now things can start getting really interesting.

Fiction in progress: NDE

As is already suspected, time travel is very well possible. There are some technical challenges to overcome, and we would have to live with some fundamental functional limitations, but those are no reasons not to do it. The only problem is that it is very, very expensive. And a bit dangerous as well.

The first working time machine will be invented somewhere around 2300. According to common twentyfirst century science, time travel is either not possible or would require all or most of the mass in the universe to get you somewhere, depending who you ask. It would at least be very inefficient. Well, that's not true. Science is just not looking in the right direction at this moment.

The other myth is that time machines can only be used to travel time that lies in the future of the machine's invention. The common 'proof' for this being: If it were possible, why didn't we meet tourists from the future? Also not true. Twentythird century time machines (and in fact, all time machines) could travel back and forth to anywhen they'd be programmed to travel, even to a point in time before the big bang (which by the way actually never happened).

Two hundred years from now, someone will look in the right direction, and build a very nice time machine. But even though it will not require all the mass and/or energy of ou universe to operate, it will follow the law of temporal inertia: Every change applied to spacetime will require an amount of energy proportional to the amount of change in the information topology of the universe. If someone would go back in time and kill a certain toddler named Adolf, there would be a major shift in information. Half the population of the world would live entirely diffent lives than they would have otherwise, provided that they even lived at all. This would cost so much energy, that the enterprise wouldn't be possible even with twentythird century technology and ditto energy budgets. You know what a gallon of petrol costs these days and no new fossil fuel deposits will be found in the next two centuries, trust me.

But energy can also be won back with information. Information tends to degrade over time. Normally this is a slow and predictable process you may experience yourself when you try to play an old video tape. Years ago, the image and sound were crisp and clear, but now it is ridden with random bands of static and hiss. This is called entropy. Entropy is the way of the universe to revert itself to a more chaotic state in order to conserve itself. It is unavoidable and as unreversable as baking an egg. The strange thing is that creating order costs as much energy as creating chaos, so why the universe has this 'preference' for chaos, we don't know.  Since order requires awareness and purpose to be appreciated, and the universe (for all we know) lacks both, we can profit from this.

If we can prevent or at least postpone the entropic process, we can borrow energy from the universe that can be converted to energy later on and then used in any form we'd fancy. But how do we intercept entropy in its finest hour? The human brain is one of the densest (and meaningful) places for information to be found, and luckily for us, it has a very distinct moment of total entropy. One moment one breathes, thinks and talks, the next moment one is completely and unreversibly dead. Entropy takes place in mere seconds, destroying petabytes of information that has taken decades to form.

Also, the moment of death of most people is recorded minutely, so it would require a time traveler only a small envelope of time to witness a very valuable moment and profit from it. Two hundred years from now, reading the contents of a brain is as easy as plugging a flashdrive into your computer is today.

To be continued.

Extract from my future reading list (1)

1. A book about someone who experieces all kinds of things that have 7 billion to one odds .
2. Though brains are very complex in their physical structure, the true rise of intelligence was greatly assisted by the attached hands and legs. This book is about a less fortunate life form. It has the brain, but no mobility, agility and other useful properties. Enter the cauliflower.
3. Image one has a time machine, but you must use it efficiently. What would you do?
4. To be continued